live·block —
0x4b35…4895
Arc Testnet · chain 5042002

A council of
eleven gods
debates every trade.

Bulls argue. Bears challenge. Risk vetoes. Execution sizes. Every approval — and every restraint — is anchored on chain.

Watch the council See a Zeus veto
0
Council agents
0
Rounds of debate
0
Python tests
0
On-chain witness
sculpting…
✦ Pondera Iustitiae ✦
← Bear weightTip the scaleBull weight →
ΑΡΗΣ — argues the long case✦ΑΘΗΝΑ — synthesises the council✦ΖΕΥΣ — supreme veto✦ΣΟΛΩΝ — constitutional check✦ΗΦΑΙΣΤΟΣ — sizes the trade✦ΘΕΜΙΣ — procedural integrity✦ΚΑΣΣΑΝΔΡΑ — flags tail risk✦ΑΙΔΗΣ — surfaces hidden depth✦ΔΑΙΔΑΛΟΣ — verifies the structure✦ΑΝΘΡΩΠΟΙ — crowd sentiment✦ΕΡΙΣ — the adversarial dissenter✦
IThe premise

Most trading bots optimise one number.
We optimise for the trades we refuse.

Pantheon Trades is built on a single conviction: discipline is alpha. Every Polymarket signal flows through a structured four-round deliberation between eleven Greek-god-named AI agents. The bulls argue the long case. The bears challenge it. The risk triad — Zeus, Solon, Themis — checks the constitution. Athena synthesises. Then the council votes. The verdict, whether to trade or to refuse, is anchored as a cryptographic witness on Circle's Arc Testnet. Discipline becomes auditable. Restraint becomes provable. The chain remembers what we chose not to do.

IIThe architecture

Six acts. One thesis.
From signal to settlement.

    I
    PYTHIA
    the oracle

    Watches Polymarket. Watches the news. Listens.

    II
    APOLLO
    the seer

    Scores every signal across seven dimensions.

    III
    BOULE
    the assembly

    Calls the council. Four rounds. Eleven voices.

    IV
    AREOPAGUS
    the court

    Gates the verdict. Sizes by half-Kelly. Vetoes the rest.

    V
    STRATEGOS
    the general

    Routes the trade. Or watches it pass.

    VI
    PARTHENON
    the temple

    Anchors the witness. On chain. Forever.

II·5Eleven tiers of hardening

Built for the trades we refuse,
hardened for the ones we take.

Eleven tiers of hardening landed the safety, intelligence, observability, and venue surface a live trading council needs. Every upstream is open-source MIT or Apache — no paid vendor lock-in.

Tier ASurvival foundation
  • ·Prometheus + Grafana on every council service
  • ·Polymarket L2 WebSocket depth
  • ·Correlation-aware portfolio sizing
  • ·Multi-sig admin migration script
  • ·Hypothesis property tests across sizing / slippage / calibration
Tier BExecution quality
  • ·Drawdown-adjusted Kelly haircut
  • ·Walk-forward + decayed agent calibration
  • ·Argos resolution-lag state machine
  • ·Strategos maker/taker chooser
  • ·Online slippage learner from realised fills
Tier CIntelligence
  • ·RAG over resolved markets (in-memory + ChromaDB)
  • ·Eris adversarial dissenter against consensus
  • ·Reflection-driven prompt evolution
  • ·Leave-one-out agent ablation scoring
  • ·Nitter RSS crowd-sentiment feed
Tier DVenues and data
  • ·Kalshi venue connector
  • ·DeFiLlama TVL + stablecoin flows + yields
  • ·TradingView screener adapter
  • ·spaCy / regex headline NER → market matcher
Tier EOperational maturity
  • ·Alembic async migrations
  • ·Hourly Postgres + Redis backup service
  • ·Mozilla SOPS + age secrets
  • ·slowapi global rate limiting
  • ·Deep /health/deep probes
Tier FFrontend
  • ·Pure-SVG Sankey trace flow
  • ·Equity / Sharpe / PnL chart primitives
  • ·Manual trade-approval card
  • ·Brier-ranked agent leaderboard
Tier GSafety hygiene
  • ·mutmut mutation testing scaffold
  • ·Shopify Toxiproxy chaos drills
  • ·a16z Halmos symbolic verification
  • ·IRS Form 8949 tax CSV export
Tier HAlpha sources
  • ·Cross-venue basis arb (Polymarket ↔ Kalshi / Odds API)
  • ·Binance perps funding-z + OI contrarian
  • ·CFTC commitments-of-traders positioning z
  • ·Deribit options IV → lognormal implied probability
  • ·Wikipedia attention + Nitter crowd_sentiment ADOPTED on empirical Brier
Tier ICalibration + sizing
  • ·Beta calibration (Kull et al 2017) alongside Platt + isotonic
  • ·Per-category Platt — politics / crypto / sports / macro
  • ·Brier-weighted council aggregation (softmax over realised Brier)
  • ·Conformal Kelly — sizes against interval lower bound
  • ·Council aggregation closes 80% of LLM-vs-Manifold Brier gap
Tier JLive integration
  • ·Polymarket V2 builder codes — daily USDC payout attribution
  • ·Maker rebates + post-only flag end-to-end through CLOB
  • ·Vercel-Edge Polymarket proxy bypasses geo-blocks
  • ·USYC idle bankroll parking + Circle Paymaster routing intents
  • ·Arc-anchored TraceEvent bundle hashes — every deliberation
Tier KReal-money gate
  • ·Expected-Value gate nets every cost against every revenue
  • ·t-stat threshold ≥ 2.0 — trade only when EV > 0 at 95% CI
  • ·Cross-venue stat-arb executor — risk-free Polymarket / Kalshi spreads
  • ·Restraint-P&L ledger — counterfactual scoring of every refusal
  • ·Circle stack facade unifies paymaster + builder + USYC + Gateway
IIICast a vote

Take a seat in the Areopagus.

Eleven councillors. Three vote states. Real weights from the constitution. Click any agent to cycle their vote — watch the verdict update live. Zeus and Solon hold the supreme veto.

Tap an agent to cycle Abstain → Approve → Reject
Areopagus verdict
0%
approval
weighted approval0%
quorum0 / 7
statusNO QUORUM

Need 7 participating votes; have 0.

IVThe flagship feature

When the council says no,
the chain remembers.

Areopagus writes a Restrained event to the ProofOfRestraint contract on Arc — binding signal hash, market, reason, and the note the council attached to the refusal. If the market later moves against the rejected direction, that restraint is provably ours.

First witness · block 42,337,549
onchain_proof_id
1
reason
ZEUS_VETO
contract
0x4b35…4895
Verify on Arcscan

The watchword: no-trade alpha.

IV·25Real-money stack

From paper edge to real cash.

The four modules that decide whether a trade is profitable after every cost, capture every cross-venue risk-free spread, and score every refusal post-resolution. None of these are sales claims — they ship in code with hermetic tests.

areopagus.expected_value25 hermetic tests

Expected-Value gate

Nets edge_pnl − spread − slippage − fee + rebate + builder_code − paymaster − gas + idle_yield. Trade fires only when t-stat ≥ 2.0 AND ev_usdc > 0.

strategos.stat_arb14 hermetic tests

Cross-venue arbitrage

Finds risk-free Polymarket / Kalshi / Manifold spreads. After-fee net > 1e-5 epsilon. Most repeatable prediction-market alpha.

areopagus.no_trade_alpha21 hermetic tests

Restraint-P&L ledger

Scores every refused trade post-resolution. Realised alpha = -would_have_pnl. Hypothesis property tested across 300 random scenarios.

strategos.circle_stack8 hermetic tests

Circle stack facade

One call returns paymaster premium, builder code revenue (bps), USYC APY, Gateway endpoint. Single source of truth for the EV gate.

IV·5Live evidence

Real chain. Real verdicts.
Real constitution.

Arc · live
Block—
Restraints—
Visits—

Polled directly from rpc.testnet.arc.network.

Captured verdict1/4
BTC ≥ $120k · 2026-12-31
RESIZED

themis sized down to half-Kelly cap

Replay this deliberation ↗
Article II §1

“No position shall exceed five percent of total book equity.”

VThe pantheon

Eleven in the chamber.
Two with the supreme veto.

Eleven councillors deliberate. Two more — Apollo, the oracle, and Boule, the assembly — orchestrate the room. Zeus and Solon hold the supreme veto: either can halt a trade on constitutional grounds.

ΑΠΟΛΛΩΝ
APOLLO
Sees the future. Scores Polymarket signals.
ΒΟΥΛΗ
BOULE
Convenes the council. Four rounds of debate.
ΑΡΗΣ
ARES
Bull researcher — argues the long case.
ΑΙΔΗΣ
HADES
Bull researcher — surfaces hidden depth.
ΑΘΗΝΑ
ATHENA
Bear researcher and synthesiser.
ΚΑΣΣΑΝΔΡΑ
CASSANDRA
Bear researcher — flags tail risk.
ΣΟΛΩΝ
SOLON⚡ veto
Constitutional check. Veto authority.
ΖΕΥΣ
ZEUS⚡ veto
Supreme veto. Hard constitutional gate.
ΘΕΜΙΣ
THEMIS
Procedural integrity. Reviews the trace.
ΗΦΑΙΣΤΟΣ
HEPHAESTUS
Execution — sizes and routes.
ΔΑΙΔΑΛΟΣ
DAEDALUS
Execution — strategy fit.
ΑΝΘΡΩΠΟΙ
HUMANS
Execution — crowd sentiment.
ΕΡΙΣ
ERIS
Adversarial dissent. Breaks groupthink.
VIThe stack

Built on the things
that don't break.

Council
Claude · Gemini
Markets
Polymarket CLOB
Chain
Arc Testnet
Storage
IPFS · Irys
Backend
FastAPI · Redis
Contracts
Solidity 0.8.24
Frontend
Next.js · shadcn
Mono
pnpm · Turborepo

Watch the council
in session.

A captured Gemini deliberation. Eleven agents. Four rounds. Watch Areopagus size — or refuse — the trade.

Approval scenario Restraint scenario