Pantheon Council — BTC $120k by 2026-12-31
Identical +17pp edge signal — but the portfolio already holds correlated crypto exposure (ETH-3500-Q2 long). Zeus runs the cluster-correlation check, finds the macro-cluster correlation at 0.78 above the 0.65 constitutional ceiling, casts the supreme veto in Round 1. Debate short-circuits. Areopagus writes the Proof of Restraint witness on Arc.
Sign one tx. Your wallet lands on chain.
Optional — read-only. The demo never transacts. Connect to see the same SIWE flow the production API uses, switch to Arc Testnet so the on-chain Proof of Restraint records render properly, and sign a verification message in your wallet.
No injected wallet detected. Install MetaMask, Rabby, Coinbase Wallet, or similar and reload.
What this proves: the Arc Testnet pipeline works for visitors end-to-end (wallet → contract → arcscan → dashboard feed). What it does NOT prove: that the council picks profitable trades. See the empirical backtest panel below for that. Cost: fractions of a cent in testnet USDC.
No injected wallet detected. Install MetaMask, Rabby, or Coinbase Wallet and reload.
Arc Testnet uses USDC as native gas. Circle's developer faucet drips free testnet USDC to any wallet — no real funds required. Each demo witness tx costs less than one US cent and is 100% covered by the drip.
You will not be charged anything. Testnet USDC has no real value — it's purely for paying the fractional gas cost of the on-chain witness tx.
Watch the council deliberate.
Twin scenarios · same signal, different portfolio
Approval and Restraint scenarios share the identical +17pp edge signal (0.59 oracle vs 0.42 market). What differs is the portfolio state: clean book → APPROVED, already-correlated book → VETOED. An edge alone does not justify a trade.
Source · Dialogue is captured from prior live Gemini runs. Signal scoring, Areopagus verdict, half-Kelly sizing, and paper trade all compute through production code paths (apollo.scorer, areopagus.court, strategos.paper).
Real BTC bars, naïve estimator.
⚠ This panel lost money — by design
The strategy is naïve momentum (long if last bar up, short if down) — a deliberate stand-in for the council. The point is to prove the plumbing survives real market data: 4% round-trip fees mathematically kill momentum. The council's job is to refuse those trades.
Run: scripts/live_paper_trade_coingecko.py on 7 days of BTC/USD hourly bars. Fills route through the real strategos.paper.PaperBook with half-spread, slippage, and 2% taker fees.
Does the council help?
200 resolved Manifold binary markets, run through the 5-role council via scripts/backtest_sources_xml.py. Brier decomposition, per-source verdicts, $0.12 cost on Gemini flash-lite.
Honest framing: the council does not beat free human consensus on this 200-market Manifold sample (0.149 vs 0.126 Brier). What it does do is close 80% of the gap between a single-shot LLM and the human prior. Aggregation across 5 distinct roles is worth ~0.11 Brier — an order of magnitude more than any individual data source. Total cost $0.120 on Gemini flash-lite (council, 5 roles × 8 batches).
| Forecaster | Brier | Reliability | Resolution |
|---|---|---|---|
Manifold consensus (baseline) free play-money human consensus — the wall to beat | 0.126 | 0.012 | 0.123 |
Single-shot Gemini raw LLM alone — worse than play-money humans | 0.260 | 0.046 | 0.049 |
5-role council aggregated closes 80% of the gap to Manifold | 0.149 | 0.019 | 0.088 |
| Source | Δ Brier | Applicability | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
attention (Wikipedia) | -0.0040 | 33.5% | ADOPT |
crowd_sentiment (Nitter) | -0.0040 | 36.0% | ADOPT |
geopolitical_risk (GDELT) | -0.0013 | 8.0% | HOLD |
lead_lag (TradingView) | -0.0006 | 14.0% | HOLD |
perps_signal (Binance) | -0.0001 | 6.3% | HOLD |
orderbook_imbalance | -0.0001 | 8.0% | HOLD |
onchain_tvl (DeFiLlama) | +0.0004 | 7.5% | HOLD |
basis_arb | +0.0003 | 6.0% | HOLD |
cot_positioning (CFTC) | +0.0010 | 5.5% | HOLD |
consensus_delta | — | 0.0% | UNTESTABLE |
macro_basis (FRED) | — | 4.0% | UNTESTABLE |
macro_release_consensus | — | 4.0% | UNTESTABLE |
What this means: council aggregation alone is worth ~0.11 Brier vs single-shot, while individual source signals are worth ~0.003–0.004 each. Aggregation > sources by an order of magnitude. The two ADOPT sources (Wikipedia attention + Nitter crowd_sentiment) are already wired in apollo.scorer at ±0.05 contribution caps. The HOLD sources may shine on a Polymarket-flavoured corpus once the geo-block proxy is deployed.
Where the prior comes from.
12 sources are plumbed in. Only 2 have survived empirical Brier-delta testing — Wikipedia attention + Nitter crowd_sentiment. The other 10 are HOLD or UNTESTABLE pending a Polymarket-flavoured corpus. A source only graduates to ADOPT when its negative Brier-delta beats noise.
| Source | Apollo feature | Mechanism | Auth | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds API | basis_arb | Sportsbook consensus vs Polymarket — vig-stripped, fee-net basis | free key | high |
| Kalshi REST | basis_arb | US-regulated event-contract prices; cross-listing arb with Polymarket | none | high |
| Manifold Markets | consensus_delta | Free human-consensus prior; wide gap = wider council, smaller size | none | high |
| Binance perps | perps_signal | Funding-rate z + OI delta; contrarian on extreme over-leverage | none | high |
| Polymarket L2 WS | orderbook_imbalance | Live CLOB book depth; per-side imbalance into oracle prior | operator key | high |
| Source | Apollo feature | Mechanism | Auth | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFTC CoT | cot_positioning | Weekly speculator-net z vs 26-week history; contrarian on crowded longs | none | medium |
| GDELT 2.0 | geopolitical_risk | Real-time global news volume + tone, 100+ languages, 15-min cadence | none | medium |
| FRED | macro_basis | 816k US macro time series; Fed / CPI / NFP gaps vs threshold | none | medium |
| Wikipedia pageviews | attention | Per-article hourly pageview velocity z-score = investor-attention proxy | none | medium |
| DeFiLlama | onchain_tvl | Chain TVL + stablecoin mints + protocol yields — flow indicator | none | medium |
| Source | Apollo feature | Mechanism | Auth | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nitter (X/Twitter) | crowd_sentiment | Free RSS scrape; in-tree VADER-style scorer for retail-flow sentiment | none | experimental |
| TradingView screener | lead_lag | Cross-asset technical screens; macro lead/lag for derived markets | none | experimental |
Falsification protocol · all 12 sources plumb into apollo.scorer.MarketSnapshot. A source graduates HOLD → ADOPT only when its paired Brier test beats the council baseline by >0.002. Non-adopted sources stay live for telemetry; their oracle delta is set to zero. No source ships unfalsified.
Built end-to-end on the Circle stack.
Sub-second deterministic finality. ~$0.01 USDC gas. Every row verifiable by clicking the path into the repo.
| Tool | What it does for Pantheon | Repo path | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arc Testnet | Settlement L1; native USDC gas; chain id 5042002 | services/areopagus/src/areopagus/chain.py | shipped |
| USDC | Settlement token throughout PaperBook + FeeLedger + BuilderLedger | services/strategos/src/strategos/paper.py | shipped |
| Contracts | 8 Solidity contracts incl. ProofOfRestraint + PantheonConstitution (Halmos-proved) | contracts/src/ | shipped |
| Wallets | EIP-1193 SIWE flow + Arc network-switch with 4902 add-network fallback | apps/web/app/demo/wallet-connect.tsx | shipped |
| Paymaster | USDC-denominated gas client + native↔paymaster routing intent | services/strategos/src/strategos/paymaster_client.py | shipped |
| Gateway | Unified USDC balance reads + per-chain breakdown + transfer intents | services/strategos/src/strategos/gateway_client.py | shipped |
| USYC | Idle-bankroll parking with mint/redeem intents + yield projection | services/strategos/src/strategos/usyc_treasury.py | shipped |
| Polymarket V2 builder codes | Per-fill USDC attribution to operator payout. Per-category fee math. | services/strategos/src/strategos/polymarket_builder.py | shipped |
| Trace anchors (Arc) | Keccak256 bundle hash of every council deliberation + IPFS canonical bytes | services/parthenon/src/parthenon/trace_anchor.py | shipped |
| App Kit | Bridge / Send / Unified Balance consume Gateway transfer intents | services/strategos/src/strategos/gateway_client.py | wired |
| CCTP | Cross-chain USDC moves flow through GatewayTransferIntent | services/strategos/src/strategos/gateway_client.py | wired |
| Nanopayments | High-frequency maker rebates rely on sub-cent Arc gas — designed use case | services/strategos/src/strategos/maker_rebate.py | partial |
First on-chain witness — block 42,337,549 on Arc Testnet: 0xf9ae0e7b…df960e62ba238e53a828dfa4edb ↗